Exiting Russian / Ukranian positions, risk of invasion no longer priced in – Deep Worth Investments Weblog


I’ve determined to promote up on maximum of my Russian / Ukranian shares.


I’m keeping directly to FEES (Russian Electrical energy grid Yield 8.5%+, P/E <4 and P/B<0.3 (I will be able to take the ache in this), and GAZP as 50% dividend payout information introduced these days implies *probably* an overly top yield.

I’m an increasing number of involved there will probably be an invasion/incursion in Ukraine. This build-up turns out lengthy/ sustained for a ‘coaching workout’. In the event that they cross house with out doing the rest Putin will glance susceptible.

I additionally notice closing 12 months their western district held in depth coaching workouts as smartly.

He’s going to be particularly cautious of communicate of Ukraine becoming a member of Nato, in Russian phrases that is similar to Canada becoming a member of the Warsaw pact – one thing that may’t be allowed to occur!

To me, army motion isn’t within the RUB/USD change fee and isn’t in the cost of shares. So till the mists transparent I can get out and look ahead to readability. There don’t seem to be prone to be any main certain catalysts quickly, so at worst I omit a couple of % of achieve over the following month or two while managing my chance. I will even have the ability to grab a handy guide a rough, small have the benefit of this, although its in reality being performed for chance minimisation.

Exhausting to know the way to name it – I first of all considered this as western scaremongering. This occurs, we were given many alarmist headlines when Russia began sending bombers against UK airspace. What used to be by no means stated used to be that NATO by no means stopped trying out Russia’s air response (however this will get no press).


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